CRE Market Intelligence
A monthly read on the U.S. commercial real estate capital markets: rates, spreads, cap rates, state-level activity, and what lenders are actually funding today.
Updated April 10, 2026
Current Rate Environment
The capital-markets backdrop that drives every CRE loan priced in the U.S. today.
Federal Reserve Effective Rate
3.64%
The target range set by the FOMC. The base rate that drives all short-term capital costs.
1-Year Treasury Yield
3.69%
The short end of the curve that most bridge and construction loans price over.
10-Year Treasury Yield
4.29%
The benchmark for permanent financing, DSCR rental loans, and long-term fixed-rate CRE debt.
Bridge Loan Spread
+400 – 700 bps
Over 1-year Treasury. All-in bridge coupons run roughly 7.7–10.7%.
Construction Lending Spread
+500 – 700 bps
Over 1-year Treasury. Ground-up coupons run roughly 8.7–10.7%, with retainage on draws.
SOFR
3.57%
The floating-rate index embedded in most institutional bridge and mezzanine debt.
Sources: Federal Reserve H.15, U.S. Treasury daily yield curve, and institutional lender rate sheets surveyed by Passy Capital. Figures as of April 10, 2026.
Market Trends by Asset Class
Cap rate ranges, lender appetite, bridge availability, and the most common capital structures we see clearing the market this month.
| Asset Class | Cap Rate | Lender Appetite | Bridge Availability | Typical Structure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Multifamily | 5.25 – 6.25% | High | Broadly available | 70% LTV, 24 mo I/O, SOFR + 400-550 |
| Industrial | 5.50 – 6.75% | High | Broadly available | 65% LTV, 24 mo I/O, SOFR + 425-575 |
| Retail (Necessity) | 6.50 – 7.75% | Medium | Selective — grocery-anchored preferred | 60-65% LTV, 24 mo I/O, SOFR + 500-650 |
| Office | 7.50 – 9.50% | Low | Constrained — Class A suburban only | 55% LTV, 12-18 mo I/O, SOFR + 600-800 |
| Hospitality | 7.75 – 9.25% | Medium | Available for flagged, RevPAR-proven assets | 60% LTV, 24-36 mo I/O, SOFR + 550-750 |
| Land / Pre-Dev | n/a | Low | Limited — entitled, permit-ready parcels only | 50% LTC, 12-18 mo, SOFR + 700-900 |
Cap rate ranges compiled from CBRE U.S. Cap Rate Survey H2 2025, NAREIT T-Tracker, and closed comps across our lender network. Structures are median terms on deals placed in the last 60 days.
State-Level Activity
Where the transaction volume and permit activity are concentrating in 2026.
| State | Population Growth | CRE Volume | Permit Activity | Top Markets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida | +1.6% YoY | Rising | Strong — multifamily + industrial | Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville |
| Texas | +1.5% YoY | Rising | Strong — SFR, BTR, industrial | Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, Houston, San Antonio |
| Georgia | +1.1% YoY | Stable | Moderate — Atlanta metro concentration | Atlanta, Savannah, Athens |
| Colorado | +0.7% YoY | Stable | Moderate — multifamily pipeline tapering | Denver, Colorado Springs, Fort Collins |
| Arizona | +1.3% YoY | Rising | Strong — industrial and BTR surge | Phoenix, Tucson, Scottsdale |
| Tennessee | +1.2% YoY | Rising | Strong — Nashville and Memphis logistics | Nashville, Chattanooga, Knoxville, Memphis |
Population growth from U.S. Census Bureau state population estimates. Permit data from the Census Building Permits Survey. Volume direction reflects MSCI Real Capital Analytics trailing-twelve-month transaction data.
Lending Environment Indicators
The supply side of CRE capital: who is lending, how aggressively, and how fast.
Bank Lending Standards
Modestly loosening
The Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey shows a net 8% of banks tightened CRE standards in Q1 2026 — the lowest reading in two years. Regional banks remain cautious on office and unanchored retail but are re-opening the door on multifamily and industrial.
Private Credit Availability
Abundant
Debt funds and private credit managers are sitting on an estimated $450B+ of dry powder earmarked for real estate. Bridge and transitional lending capacity has not been this deep since 2022, which is compressing spreads on high-quality deals.
CMBS Issuance
Recovering
Private-label CMBS issuance is pacing roughly 25% above 2025 YTD. SASB deals on trophy multifamily and industrial are clearing at A-rated spreads of ~135 bps, signaling meaningfully better execution for permanent take-outs.
Average Days to Close
Bridge 7-10 / Construction 30-45 / DSCR 21-30
Bridge loans continue to fund in 7-10 business days with a clean file. Construction deals take 30-45 days due to plan review, budget diligence, and title work. DSCR rental loans close in 21-30 days pending appraisal.
What This Means for Borrowers
Four practical takeaways from the data above, from the broker seat.
Lock rates when you see them
With the Fed on hold and the 1-year Treasury hovering near 4.5%, bridge coupons are unlikely to fall materially in the next quarter. If your deal pencils at today's rate, lock at term sheet — waiting for a cut rarely pays.
Lead with multifamily or industrial
Lender appetite is strongest in these two classes, and spreads are tightest. If you have a deal in either, expect competitive term sheets from 3-5 lenders within a week. Office and land deals will need a much narrower lender list.
Use private credit for speed, banks for cost
Banks are cheaper but slow and selective. Private debt funds are faster and more flexible but cost 150-300 bps more. A common play: close with a bridge lender in 10 days, then refi into a bank or agency loan 12-18 months later once stabilized.
Focus on Sun Belt growth corridors
Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Tennessee continue to lead population and permit activity. Deals in Miami, DFW, Phoenix, and Nashville are getting meaningfully better execution than comparable deals in the Northeast or West Coast gateway markets.
Sources & Methodology
This page is refreshed monthly. Every figure is tied to a public dataset or directly observed in the lender quotes we receive on live deals.
- Federal Reserve — FOMC Statements & H.15 Selected Interest Rates↗
- U.S. Treasury — Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates↗
- Mortgage Bankers Association — Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding↗
- NAREIT — T-Tracker Total Returns and Cap Rate Indices↗
- Urban Land Institute (ULI) — Emerging Trends in Real Estate↗
- CBRE Research — U.S. Cap Rate Survey and Lender Sentiment↗
- Federal Reserve — Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS)↗
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — Regional and State Employment↗
- U.S. Census Bureau — Building Permits Survey and Population Estimates↗
- Trepp — CMBS Issuance, Delinquency, and Special Servicing Data↗
Market intelligence is informational only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or lending advice. Actual loan terms depend on borrower, property, and market specifics at the time of underwriting.
Put the Data to Work
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